裁定取引始めたいですが、コインをどう配分するのか?

仮想通貨のHODL投資家であれば、市場のベータエクスポージャーを獲得するのと同時に、裁定戦略を利用して利益を増やすことができます。初心者ならどう始めましょうか?

私は仮想通貨取引の初心者であれば、下記の裁定取引から始めたいと思います。

  1. まずは資本が0.50 BTCしかないため、1ペアのみ始まる。
  2. 取引所AとBのLTCBTCのスプレッドが安定的に存在することを理解しています
  3. この場合には、1ペアに資本を集中させることのほうがいいと思います。
  4. 私は0.25 BTC相当のLTCを購入します。仮に値段は0.011。私は22LTCを購入します。
  5. その後、22 LTCと0.25 BTCを取引所AとBに移動して、裁定取引戦略を開始します。
  6. 1.00%のスプレッドが出るの場合(個人の設定で)、毎回1LTCを取引所Aで売却し、取引所Bで買い戻します。1回の利益は0.00011 BTCを確保できます
  7. 22のLTCを持っているので、22回にしたら、合計0.0024 BTCを得られると考えられます。
  8. LTCとBTCを裁定取引のポジションに調整して、裁定取引を再開。現時点では、LTCのポジションは22に維持されていますが、BTCは0.0024 BTCの利益で増加しています。
  9. これを1日に数回行うことで、1日で比較的まともな利益を得ることができます。

裁定取引には、LTCとBTCの移動コストをかかるため、同時にいくつかペアを組むのではなく、シングルペアに集中したいと思います

注:以上は自身の思ってるの配分です。投資助言ではありません。ご注意ください。ただのこの数年間の裁定取引の経験によって共有しています。

裁定戦略と市場リスク

私は、裁定取引のリスクとは、裁定取引戦略を実行するにはどのくらいの金額から始めるべきかについて多くの質問を受けました。

まずは、始めたいトレーディングペアに決まりましょう。資本が必要です。たとえば、アルトコインで裁定取引を実行する場合は、まずアルトコインを取得する必要があります。アービトラージ戦略は、HODLの投資家に適しています。だから、コインを選ぶことは比較的重要です。

裁定取引については、どのようにして始めたいのかもっと慎重に考える必要があるかもしれません。次のシナリオを見てみましょう。XXX-BTCペア間取引所 AとBのスプレッドが存在している。

まず始めに:

  1. 1.0 BTCを購入し、その後0.5 BTCの一部を価格0.005 BTCでXXXコインに購入します。100個のXXXコインを得る。
  2. 次に、BTCとXXXコインを取引所AとBに移動します。
  3. スプレッドが出てときはいつでも、取引所AとBの間で売買するための裁定取引プロセスを開始します。

数ヶ月後、アービトラージの活動の間の利益として得ています。しかし、資本の総額は下がるの可能性があります。例えば 3か月での裁定利益が合計0.15BTCであると仮定しましょう。総BTCは以下の通りです:

BTC = 0.50 (資本) + 0.15 (裁定取引の利益)

XXX = 100 (資本)

仮に、3が月後にXXXの価格は0.005から0.0025に下がったの場合、XXXをBTCに換算するときの総資産は0.25 BTCを減ってきました。全体的に見ると、BTCをそのままに保有しているだけでは、予想より0.05少なくなります。それはマーケットリスクといいます。

一方、XXXは3ヶ月で0.005から0.010に急上昇する。裁定取引から利益を得ること同時に資本の増価の利益もえているのことです。

How Much Shall I Allocate Coins To Start Arbitrage?

If you are altcoin and BTC HODL investor. You can utilize the arbitrage strategy to increase your profit in the same time of gaining market beta exposure. What if I am beginner? How shall I start?

If I am a beginner in this crypto trading and would like to start with arbitrage. This is my scenario:

  1. I have less capital. I have only 0.50 BTC in total.
  2. I understand the spreads of LTCBTC pair in Exchange A and B is consistently exists
  3. I am bullish of LTC and think it will appreciate x number of times in the next 1 or 2 years.
  4. I would prefer to focus my capital in one single coinin this scenario.
  5. I will buy 0.25 BTC worth of LTC. i.e. 0.011. I will get 22 LTC.
  6. I will then place allocate 22 LTC and 0.25 BTC into Exchange A and B to start the arbitrage strategies.
  7. Whenever the 1.00% spreads exists(this is my preference) I will start to sell 1 LTC @ Exchange A and buy back at Exchange B each time.
  8. Each time I will capture 0.00011 BTC as profit in single
  9. Since I have 22 LTC, i may be able to perform 22 times to capture 0.00242 BTC with my capital until my LTC is used up in either Exchange A or B.
  10. I will then transfer LTC and BTC back to the position for arbitrage to start again. At this point, I expect my LTC position maintained at 22 but my BTC increased with the profit of 0.00242 BTC.
  11. By doing this few times a day, I can capture relatively decent profit in single day.

Since arbitrage activities involves coins transfer and BTC as funding vehicle. I would rather to stay focus in single pair rather than doing few pairs at the same time.

Note: This is my own preference scenario. I am not financial adviser that advise you to do so. I am sharing my experience gained after this few years of arbitrage strategies in crypto currency.

Arbitrage Strategies and Market Risk

I received a lot of questions on what is the risk of doing arbitrage and how much shall I start with if I want to run the arbitrage trading strategies.

First of all, depend on the trading pair you want to start with. You need capital. As example, if you want to run the arbitrages in altcoin with BTC as pair, you need to have the altcoins first. The arbitrage strategies is suitable to HODL investors or any beginner investor that believe the appreciation of the BTC and altcoins in longer time frame. So, choosing the coins is relatively important.

You may found a lot of market inefficiency among the crypto exchanges around the world. You may need to think more carefully how would you want to start. Let’s take a look at the following scenario: You think the spreads between XXX-BTC pairs has bigger spreads in Exchange A and B.

You decided to start with:

  1. Buy 1.0 BTC, then convert part of 0.5 BTC to XXX coins at price 0.005 You get 100 XXX coins.
  2. Then, you allocate the BTC and XXX coins to Exchange A and B
  3. You start arbitrage process continuously to buy and sell between Exchange A and B whenever spreads exists.

After few months, you may have captured attractive spreads as profit between those activities. But, have you thought about your capital depreciation if you are unlucky? Let’s assume the arbitrage profit within 3 months is 0.15 BTC in total. Your total BTC is as follow:

BTC = 0.50 (your capital) + 0.15 (profit from arbitrage)

XXX = 100 (maintained the same amount as capital)

But unfortunately the price of XXX goes down from 0.005 to 0.0025. It means your total asset when converting back XXX to BTC in total has lost 0.25 BTC in this case. Overall, you have 0.05 less than expected if you just hold BTC in general. That is the market risk you may have to be aware of.

On the other hand, if you are bullish on the XXX and what if you are right? XXX surge from 0.005 to 0.010 in 3 months. It means you are enjoying the capital appreciation at the same time gaining the profit from arbitrage trading.

Arbitrage Trading vs GPU Mining

How benefit Arbitrage Crypto Trading compared to GPU mining?

I had been started GPU mining 3 months ago. I started with 6 GPUs of NVIDIA 1070 mining rig and put in my extra tiny space at home. As expected, it took me a while to get those 6 GPUs as they are really out of stocks. The total cost of getting the mining rigs is about $5,000 USD. I started to mine with Nicehash and since the difficulty is rising and we’re competing the hashrate each other, the daily returns is about 0.001 BTC. In average i mined 0.03 BTC per month before the electricity cost, which is about 25% of the output.

This is my simple calculation of my ROI (Returns on Investment). In short, it takes me 21 months for ROI

On the other hands, I’m comparing the returns on arbitrage trading by using arbitrage trading bot that do the same thing as mining, where the bot run on the same mining rig 24/7. I have been running for a week and so far the returns is about USD 250, which is equivalent to 0.03 BTC. Please note I’m using 1 BTC and 5 BCH coins in two separate exchanges to capture the simultaneous arbitrage

My intention of GPU mining is to collect more bitcoins and hope for the appreciation one day. At the same time, I tend to believe arbitrage trading help me to increase my coins with my existing bitcoins and altcoins that I keep as long term investment. I don’t want to take higher risk in technical analysis trading but I believe arbitrage opportunities are every where in crypto currencies world and the risk is minimal.

Arbitrage trading is not easy? Yes, it is not easy if you have to sit in front of the computer to perform buy and sell 24 hours a day. No, it will be easy if there is a bot bot to do the job for you.